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Smorgon vs FC Isloch Minsk R. — Premier League 2018

Smorgon
Smorgon
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
G. Rovdo 79'
A. Shestyuk 76'
V. Zhuravlev 29'
A. Makarenko 23'
6/20/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Yunost Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Smorgon32%
×Draw27%
FC Isloch Minsk R.41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smorgon
1.16
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.33

FC Isloch Minsk R. creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 119 away

creates per match

Smorgon
0.98
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.28

allows per match

Smorgon
1.37
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.34

finishing

Smorgon+0.00on par
FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smorgon ↓

FC Isloch Minsk R. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Smorgon or draw
59%
Smorgon or FC Isloch Minsk R.
73%
Draw or FC Isloch Minsk R.
68%

Winning margin

Smorgon wins by 2+
13%
FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Smorgon 1+ goals
69%
Smorgon 2+ goals
32%
Smorgon 3+ goals
11%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
74%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
38%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Smorgon (draw refunded)
44%
FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smorgon at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.37 · 60 matches

FC Isloch Minsk R. away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smorgon attack 0.98 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.28 + Smorgon defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Smorgon scores more
32%
level
27%
FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
41%

FC Isloch Minsk R. at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Isloch Minsk R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
A. Makarenko↳ Y. Kravchenko
29'
V. Zhuravlev
41'
Vladimir Maslovskiy
46'
S. Sodikov← M. Diallo
58'
Christian Intsoen
65'
V. Chebotar← V. Maslovskiy
65'
M. Yablonskiy← A. Tishko
68'
Vladislav Zhuravlev
73'
A. Guz← Y. Kravchenko
76'
A. Shestyuk↳ M. Kovalevich
79'
G. Rovdo↳ A. Shestyuk
84'
O. Veretilo← V. Bulmaga
84'
N. Stalbekov← G. Rovdo
90+1'
A. Olaleye← A. Shestyuk
90+1'
I. Khovalko← M. Kovalevich

Possession

45%Smorgon

Statistics

SmorgonFC
Overview
45%Possession55%
2Corners6
12Fouls12
Shots
4On Target9
6Off Target3
Passing
45%Possession55%
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Premier League: Smorgon 0–4 FC Isloch Minsk R.

FC Isloch Minsk R. beat Smorgon 4-0 in Premier League on June 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Makarenko (23'), V. Zhuravlev (29'), A. Shestyuk (76'), G. Rovdo (79').

FC Isloch Minsk R. dominated possession with 55% of the ball.

The match was played at Yunost Stadium in Smorgon.