FC Isloch Minsk R. 0–0 Smorgon: Result & Stats

FC Isloch Minsk R.

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Smorgon

2/18/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Isloch Minsk R.52%

×Draw29%

Smorgon19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Isloch Minsk R.Expected goals in this matchSmorgon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.66

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.29

Smorgon

0.66

FC Isloch Minsk R. creates 95% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

0.31

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.

1.25

Smorgon

1.00

allows per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.

0.31

Smorgon

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Smorgon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Isloch Minsk R. ↓

Smorgon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FC Isloch Minsk R. or draw

81%

FC Isloch Minsk R. or Smorgon

71%

Draw or Smorgon

48%

Winning margin

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+

24%

Smorgon wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals

72%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals

37%

FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals

14%

Smorgon 1+ goals

48%

Smorgon 2+ goals

14%

Smorgon 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)

73%

Smorgon (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Isloch Minsk R. at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.31 · 16 matches

Smorgon away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.25 + Smorgon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Smorgon attack 1.00 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more

52%

level

29%

Smorgon scores more

19%

FC Isloch Minsk R. at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Isloch Minsk R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

34'

39'

FC

Smorgon

16

55

78

4

33

88

77

13

17

7

3

28

33

3

25

14

99

7

5

23

19

10

Manager: Dmitriy Komarovskiy

FC Isloch Minsk R. substitutes

1Klimovich20Veretilo22Shevchenko87Kravchenko15Abramishvili27Stalbekov

Manager: Sergey Dorokhovich

Match Recap: FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Smorgon

FC Isloch Minsk R. and Smorgon drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 18, 2026.

FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Smorgon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Smorgon