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FC Isloch Minsk R. vs Smorgon — Premier League 2018

FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Smorgon
Smorgon
11/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28SOK Olympijskij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Isloch Minsk R.60%
×Draw22%
Smorgon18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.88
Smorgon
0.92

FC Isloch Minsk R. creates 104% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 58 away

creates per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.43
Smorgon
0.88

allows per match

FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.96
Smorgon
2.34

finishing

FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par
Smorgon+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Isloch Minsk R. ↓

Smorgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Isloch Minsk R. or draw
82%
FC Isloch Minsk R. or Smorgon
78%
Draw or Smorgon
40%

Winning margin

FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
35%
Smorgon wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
85%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
56%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
29%
Smorgon 1+ goals
60%
Smorgon 2+ goals
23%
Smorgon 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
77%
Smorgon (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Isloch Minsk R. at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Smorgon away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.43 + Smorgon defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.88

Smorgon attack 0.88 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
60%
level
22%
Smorgon scores more
18%

FC Isloch Minsk R. at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Isloch Minsk R. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Aleksandr Shestyuk
58'
A. Olaleye← N. Stalbekov
72'
N. Knyshev← N. Patsko
72'
V. Khvashchinskiy← A. Shestyuk
72'
V. Chebotar← M. Budko
76'
L. Bamba← M. Dukso
88'
A. Zaleskiy← M. Kovalevich
88'
A. Dayneko← M. Yablonskiy

Statistics

FCSmorgon
Discipline
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Premier League: FC Isloch Minsk R. 0–0 Smorgon

FC Isloch Minsk R. and Smorgon drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at SOK Olympijskij in Minsk.