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Smorgon vs Belshina — Premier League 2018

Smorgon
Smorgonadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Belshina
Belshina
A. Dayneko 10'
12/3/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · FinalYunost Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Smorgon45%
×Draw25%
Belshina30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Smorgon
1.55
Belshina
1.23

Smorgon creates 26% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 51 away

creates per match

Smorgon
0.98
Belshina
1.08

allows per match

Smorgon
1.37
Belshina
2.12

finishing

Smorgon+0.00on par
Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smorgon ↓

Belshina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Smorgon or draw
70%
Smorgon or Belshina
75%
Draw or Belshina
55%

Winning margin

Smorgon wins by 2+
22%
Belshina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Smorgon 1+ goals
79%
Smorgon 2+ goals
46%
Smorgon 3+ goals
20%
Belshina 1+ goals
71%
Belshina 2+ goals
35%
Belshina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Smorgon (draw refunded)
60%
Belshina (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smorgon at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.37 · 60 matches

Belshina away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.12 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smorgon attack 0.98 + Belshina defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.55

Belshina attack 1.08 + Smorgon defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Smorgon scores more
45%
level
25%
Belshina scores more
30%

Smorgon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Smorgon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
A. Dayneko
20'
Aleksey Firsov
30'
Ilya Vikhrov
43'
Semen Shestilovski
64'
Arthur Tishko
74'
Aliaksei Daineka
77'
L. Bamba← M. Yablonskiy
77'
T. Dubovik← A. Dayneko
88'
V. Chebotar← V. Maslovskiy
90+2'
Aleksey Firsov
90+1'
Timur Dubovik
90+2'
Aleksey Firsov
90'
I. Bogdanovich← A. Tishko

Statistics

SmorgonBelshina
Discipline
5Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0

Premier League: Smorgon 1–0 Belshina

Smorgon beat Belshina 1-0 in Premier League on December 3, 2025.

Goals: A. Dayneko (10').

The match was played at Yunost Stadium in Smorgon.