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Belshina vs Smorgon — Premier League 2018

Belshina
Belshina
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Smorgon
Smorgon
I. Kukharchik 80'
Y. Djaha 71'
8/5/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Belshina43%
×Draw24%
Smorgon33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belshina
1.65
Smorgon
1.41

Belshina creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 58 away

creates per match

Belshina
0.96
Smorgon
0.88

allows per match

Belshina
1.94
Smorgon
2.34

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par
Smorgon+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

Smorgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Belshina or draw
67%
Belshina or Smorgon
76%
Draw or Smorgon
57%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+
22%
Smorgon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals
81%
Belshina 2+ goals
49%
Belshina 3+ goals
23%
Smorgon 1+ goals
76%
Smorgon 2+ goals
41%
Smorgon 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)
57%
Smorgon (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

Smorgon away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.34 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 0.96 + Smorgon defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.65

Smorgon attack 0.88 + Belshina defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Belshina scores more
43%
level
24%
Smorgon scores more
33%

Belshina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Belshina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
S. Lomako← N. Sokolovskiy
46'
Y. Camara← S. Atrashkevich
62'
P. Gorbach← P. Seleznev
64'
I. Kukharchik← F. Akyam
65'
Lukuman Aliu
71'
Y. Djaha
78'
I. Nuradeen← S. Usenya
79'
A. Matlakh← N. Gribov
80'
I. Kukharchik
88'
K. Leonovich← I. Sen
90+3'
D. Denisenko← Y. Djaha

Statistics

BelshinaSmorgon
Overview
6Corners5
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Belshina vs Smorgon

Belshina beat Smorgon 2-0 in Premier League on August 5, 2023.

Goals: Y. Djaha (71'), I. Kukharchik (80').

The match was played at Stadyen Spartak in Bobruisk.