Smorgon 1–2 Belshina: Result & Stats | Coppa

Smorgon

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Belshina

M. Bamba 78'

V. Davydov 39'

Y. Gavrilov 18'

7/26/2024

Coppa · Round of 16Stadyen Junatstva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Smorgon18%

×Draw16%

Belshina66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SmorgonExpected goals in this matchBelshina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

3.15

Smorgon

1.65

Belshina

3.15

Belshina creates 91% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.20

creates per match

2.89

3.40

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Smorgon

1.20

Belshina

2.89

allows per match

Smorgon

3.40

Belshina

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Smorgon+0.00on par

Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Smorgon ↓

Belshina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–44%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–37%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Smorgon or draw

34%

Smorgon or Belshina

84%

Draw or Belshina

82%

Winning margin

Smorgon wins by 2+

8%

Belshina wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Smorgon 1+ goals

81%

Smorgon 2+ goals

49%

Smorgon 3+ goals

23%

Belshina 1+ goals

96%

Belshina 2+ goals

81%

Belshina 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Smorgon (draw refunded)

21%

Belshina (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Smorgon at home — creates 1.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Belshina away — creates 2.89, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Smorgon attack 1.20 + Belshina defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.65

Belshina attack 2.89 + Smorgon defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Smorgon scores more

18%

level

16%

Belshina scores more

66%

Belshina at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Belshina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

16'

18'

23'

27'

31'

31'

39'

46'

A. Tishko← A. Kuzmich

46'

P. Gorbach← M. Dukso

52'

D. Chertkoev

55'

M. Samotoy← I. Sen

55'

N. Golub← Y. Gavrilov

62'

A. Kopytich← Y. Camara

62'

D. Denisenko← D. Chertkoev

78'

M. Bamba

88'

N. Sokolovskiy← V. Kabachevskiy

90'

I. Udodov

90+3'

A. Shalashnikov

Smorgon

Belshina

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: I. Sļesarčuks

46'▲A. Tishko←▼A. Kuzmich

46'▲P. Gorbach←▼M. Dukso

62'▲A. Kopytich←▼Y. Camara

Smorgon substitutes

TishkoGorbachKopytichGlotkoStankevichIntsoenAskarovAzarkoDalidovichShubovich

Manager: M. Martinovich

55'▲M. Samotoy←▼I. Sen

55'▲N. Golub←▼Y. Gavrilov

62'▲D. Denisenko←▼D. Chertkoev

88'▲N. Sokolovskiy←▼V. Kabachevskiy

Belshina substitutes

SamotoyGolubDenisenkoSokolovskiyMalykhKatsynelPatsenko

Match Recap: Smorgon vs Belshina

Belshina beat Smorgon 2-1 in Coppa on July 26, 2024.

Goals: Y. Gavrilov (18'), V. Davydov (39'), M. Bamba (78').

The match was played at Stadyen Junatstva in Smorgon.

Smorgon vs Belshina — Coppa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Smorgon vs Belshina