Šmartno 1–1 Brežice: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Šmartno

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brežice

S. Džumhur 32'

G. Petrić 61'

3/28/2021

2. SNL · Round 14Štadion Šmartno ob Paki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Šmartno27%

×Draw23%

Brežice50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŠmartnoExpected goals in this matchBrežice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.84

Šmartno

1.29

Brežice

1.84

Brežice creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 37 away

0.73

creates per match

0.86

2.82

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Šmartno

0.73

Brežice

0.86

allows per match

Šmartno

2.82

Brežice

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Šmartno+0.00on par

Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šmartno ↓

Brežice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Šmartno or draw

50%

Šmartno or Brežice

77%

Draw or Brežice

73%

Winning margin

Šmartno wins by 2+

11%

Brežice wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Šmartno 1+ goals

72%

Šmartno 2+ goals

37%

Šmartno 3+ goals

14%

Brežice 1+ goals

84%

Brežice 2+ goals

55%

Brežice 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Šmartno (draw refunded)

35%

Brežice (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šmartno at home — creates 0.73, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šmartno attack 0.73 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.29

Brežice attack 0.86 + Šmartno defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Šmartno scores more

27%

level

23%

Brežice scores more

50%

Brežice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

H. Muzaferović← R. Čaks

32'

S. Džumhur

60'

A. Pajaziti← M. Predanič

60'

T. Zakrajšek← Ž. Jurečič

61'

67'

67'

73'

88'

T. Rešetič← G. Petrić

Šmartno

Brežice

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Smajlović

9'▲H. Muzaferović←▼R. Čaks

67'▲A. Vezaj←▼V. Zekhov

67'▲M. Trop←▼R. Melavc

Šmartno substitutes

MuzaferovićVezajTropKerićTrapZabukovnikVerdev

Manager: R. Zorko

60'▲A. Pajaziti←▼M. Predanič

60'▲T. Zakrajšek←▼Ž. Jurečič

73'▲D. Škrbec←▼D. Božič

88'▲T. Rešetič←▼G. Petrić

Brežice substitutes

PajazitiZakrajšekŠkrbecRešetičVizlarDrugovičGoričar