Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brežice vs Šmartno — 2. SNL 2019

Brežice
Brežice
CANC
15:00
Šmartno
Šmartno
5/15/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Brežice45%
×Draw25%
Šmartno30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brežice
1.52
Šmartno
1.18

Brežice creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 11 away

creates per match

Brežice
1.21
Šmartno
1.09

allows per match

Brežice
1.26
Šmartno
1.82

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par
Šmartno+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Šmartno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brežice or draw
70%
Brežice or Šmartno
75%
Draw or Šmartno
55%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+
22%
Šmartno wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals
78%
Brežice 2+ goals
45%
Brežice 3+ goals
20%
Šmartno 1+ goals
69%
Šmartno 2+ goals
33%
Šmartno 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)
60%
Šmartno (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Šmartno away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.21 + Šmartno defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.52

Šmartno attack 1.09 + Brežice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Brežice scores more
45%
level
25%
Šmartno scores more
30%

Brežice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brežice vs Šmartno — Match Preview

Brežice face Šmartno on May 15, 2021 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.