Brežice 2–1 Šmartno: Result & Stats | 3. SNL - East

Brežice

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Šmartno

8/22/2025

3. SNL - East · East - 2Stadion Brežice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brežice55%

×Draw22%

Šmartno23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrežiceExpected goals in this matchŠmartno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.21

Brežice

2.00

Šmartno

1.21

Brežice creates 65% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.67

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Brežice

2.00

Šmartno

1.67

allows per match

Brežice

0.75

Šmartno

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par

Šmartno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Šmartno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brežice or draw

77%

Brežice or Šmartno

78%

Draw or Šmartno

45%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+

33%

Šmartno wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals

86%

Brežice 2+ goals

59%

Brežice 3+ goals

32%

Šmartno 1+ goals

70%

Šmartno 2+ goals

34%

Šmartno 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)

71%

Šmartno (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Šmartno away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 2.00 + Šmartno defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Šmartno attack 1.67 + Brežice defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brežice scores more

55%

level

22%

Šmartno scores more

23%

Brežice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff