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Slovenia vs Malta — League #32 2026

Slovenia
Slovenia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Malta
Malta
S. Lovrić 44' (pen)
9/4/2021League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 5Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slovenia57%
×Draw28%
Malta15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia
1.35
Malta
0.53

Slovenia creates 155% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Slovenia
1.20
Malta
0.25

allows per match

Slovenia
0.80
Malta
1.50

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par
Malta+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Malta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw
85%
Slovenia or Malta
72%
Draw or Malta
43%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+
28%
Malta wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals
74%
Slovenia 2+ goals
39%
Slovenia 3+ goals
15%
Malta 1+ goals
41%
Malta 2+ goals
10%
Malta 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)
80%
Malta (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Malta away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.20 + Malta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Malta attack 0.25 + Slovenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slovenia scores more
57%
level
28%
Malta scores more
15%

Slovenia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
J. BijolSloveniaSlovenia · D
7.9

Match Events

12'
Jasmin Kurtić
43'
Enrico Pepe
44'
S. LovrićPenalty
45'
Alexander Satariano
46'
R. Camenzuli← J. Corbalan
58'
L. Montebello← A. Satariano
58'
P. Mbong← S. Dimech
60'
D. Črnigoj← D. Bohar
61'
M. Zajc← J. Mlakar
70'
J. Gorenc Stankovič← S. Lovrić
70'
A. Šporar← B. Šeško
73'
L. Gambin← J. Mbong
77'
Luke Montebello
79'
S. Pisani← T. Caruana
86'
Zach Muscat

Possession

52%Slovenia

Shots

12Slovenia

Pass accuracy

50%Slovenia

Statistics

SloveniaMalta
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots4
4Corners5
10Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots4
3On Target1
6Off Target1
3Blocked2
10Inside Box3
2Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
445Total Passes415
367Accurate Passes336
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls17
1Yellow Cards4
1Offsides3

League #32: Slovenia 1–0 Malta

Slovenia beat Malta 1-0 in League #32 on September 4, 2021.

Goals: S. Lovrić (44' pen).

Slovenia controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana.