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Malta vs Slovenia — League #32 2026

Malta
Malta
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Slovenia
Slovenia
B. Šeško 67'
J. Iličić 60', 27'
A. Šporar 49'
10/8/2021League #32League #32 · Group Stage - 7Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malta23%
×Draw31%
Slovenia46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
0.72
Slovenia
1.15

Slovenia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Malta
0.25
Slovenia
0.80

allows per match

Malta
1.50
Slovenia
1.20

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malta or draw
54%
Malta or Slovenia
69%
Draw or Slovenia
77%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
7%
Slovenia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
51%
Malta 2+ goals
16%
Malta 3+ goals
4%
Slovenia 1+ goals
68%
Slovenia 2+ goals
32%
Slovenia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
33%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 0.25 + Slovenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.72

Slovenia attack 0.80 + Malta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Malta scores more
23%
level
31%
Slovenia scores more
46%

Slovenia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
S. LovrićSloveniaSlovenia · M
9.0

Match Events

27'
J. Iličić↳ J. Balkovec
49'
A. Šporar↳ S. Lovrić
50'
Andraž ŠporarGoal confirmed
57'
A. Satariano← P. Mbong
57'
L. Gambin← S. Dimech
60'
J. Iličić↳ S. Lovrić
61'
B. Šeško← A. Šporar
61'
D. Črnigoj← B. Verbič
66'
Joseph Mbong
67'
B. Šeško↳ S. Lovrić
68'
A. Magri Overend← J. Mbong
68'
T. Caruana← S. Pisani
71'
J. Gorenc Stankovič← S. Lovrić
72'
L. Zahović← J. Iličić
80'
J. Degabriele← L. Montebello
82'
T. Elšnik← J. Kurtič
88'
Alexander Satariano

Possession

45%Malta

Shots

5Malta

Pass accuracy

48%Malta

Statistics

MaltaSlovenia
Overview
45%Possession55%
5Total Shots20
3Corners4
7Fouls9
Shots
5Total Shots20
1On Target5
3Off Target8
1Blocked7
4Inside Box11
1Outside Box9
Passing
45%Possession55%
469Total Passes587
385Accurate Passes527
82%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls9
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Malta vs Slovenia

Slovenia beat Malta 4-0 in League #32 on October 8, 2021.

Goals: J. Iličić (27', 60'), A. Šporar (49'), B. Šeško (67').

Slovenia controlled possession (55%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.