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Malta vs Slovenia — League #32 2026

Malta
Malta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovenia
Slovenia
B. Verbič 47'
11/11/2016League #32League #32 · 1st Round - 4Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Malta23%
×Draw31%
Slovenia46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
0.72
Slovenia
1.15

Slovenia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Malta
0.25
Slovenia
0.80

allows per match

Malta
1.50
Slovenia
1.20

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–118%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Malta or draw
54%
Malta or Slovenia
69%
Draw or Slovenia
77%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
7%
Slovenia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
51%
Malta 2+ goals
16%
Malta 3+ goals
4%
Slovenia 1+ goals
68%
Slovenia 2+ goals
32%
Slovenia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
33%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 0.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 0.25 + Slovenia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.72

Slovenia attack 0.80 + Malta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Malta scores more
23%
level
31%
Slovenia scores more
46%

Slovenia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Dejan Trajkovski
34'
Zach Muscat
36'
Andrei Agius
47'
B. Verbič↳ J. Kurtič
63'
B. Jović← D. Trajkovski
68'
S. Borg← R. Camilleri
72'
N. Omladič← V. Birsa
74'
Rowen Muscat
78'
J. Farrugia← M. Mifsud
82'
Gareth Sciberras
83'
A. Šporar← M. Novakovič
88'
Joseph Zerafa

Possession

35%Malta

Shots

5Malta

Statistics

MaltaSlovenia
Overview
35%Possession65%
5Total Shots14
0Corners2
22Fouls14
Shots
5Total Shots14
2On Target9
3Off Target5
Passing
35%Possession65%
Goalkeeping
8Saves2
Discipline
22Fouls14
5Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

League #32: Malta 0–1 Slovenia

Slovenia beat Malta 1-0 in League #32 on November 11, 2016.

Goals: B. Verbič (47').

Slovenia controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.