Slovenia 1–1 Austria: Result & Stats

Slovenia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Austria

B. Šeško 16' (pen)

K. Laimer 28'

9/6/2024

UEFA Nations League · League B - 1Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Slovenia34%

×Draw28%

Austria39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SloveniaExpected goals in this matchAustria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.25

Slovenia

1.15

Austria

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.09

1.40

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Slovenia

1.20

Austria

1.09

allows per match

Slovenia

1.40

Austria

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovenia+0.00on par

Austria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia ↓

Austria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Slovenia or draw

61%

Slovenia or Austria

72%

Draw or Austria

66%

Winning margin

Slovenia wins by 2+

14%

Austria wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Slovenia 1+ goals

68%

Slovenia 2+ goals

32%

Slovenia 3+ goals

11%

Austria 1+ goals

71%

Austria 2+ goals

36%

Austria 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Slovenia (draw refunded)

47%

Austria (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Austria away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia attack 1.20 + Austria defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.15

Austria attack 1.09 + Slovenia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Slovenia scores more

34%

level

28%

Austria scores more

39%

Austria at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

B. Šeško

Slovenia · F

7.5

Match Events

14'

Petar StojanovićPenalty confirmed

16'

B. ŠeškoPenalty

28'

35'

35'

45'

46'

C. Baumgartner← P. Wimmer

54'

63'

63'

76'

82'

J. Adamu← M. Arnautović

82'

K. Stöger← R. Schmid

83'

Phillipp Mwene

86'

J. Balkovec← D. Brekalo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SloveniaAustria

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots11

4Corners7

9Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots11

1On Target4

4Off Target5

3Blocked2

5Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

314Total Passes524

230Accurate Passes438

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1