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Austria vs Slovenia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Austria
Austria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slovenia
Slovenia
R. Schmid 27'
A. Gnezda Čerin 81'
11/17/2024UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · League B - 6Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Austria44%
×Draw28%
Slovenia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria
1.33
Slovenia
1.01

Austria creates 32% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Austria
1.67
Slovenia
0.85

allows per match

Austria
1.17
Slovenia
1.00

finishing

Austria+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Austria or draw
72%
Austria or Slovenia
72%
Draw or Slovenia
56%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+
20%
Slovenia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals
74%
Austria 2+ goals
38%
Austria 3+ goals
15%
Slovenia 1+ goals
64%
Slovenia 2+ goals
27%
Slovenia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)
61%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 1.67 + Slovenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Slovenia attack 0.85 + Austria defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Austria scores more
44%
level
28%
Slovenia scores more
28%

Austria at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
M. WöberAustriaAustria · D
7.7

Match Events

16'
David Brekalo
27'
R. Schmid↳ C. Baumgartner
55'
Konrad Laimer
65'
D. Petrovič← P. Stojanović
81'
A. Šporar← J. Mlakar
81'
S. Lovrić← T. Elšnik
81'
A. Gnezda Čerin↳ Ž. Karničnik
83'
Adam Gnezda Čerin
83'
M. Gregoritsch← R. Schmid
90'
F. Grillitsch← K. Laimer
90'
P. Wimmer← M. Arnautović
90+1'
V. Drkušić← Ž. Vipotnik

Possession

67%Austria

Shots

22Austria

Pass accuracy

56%Austria

Statistics

AustriaSlovenia
Overview
67%Possession33%
22Total Shots9
3Corners0
12Fouls9
Shots
22Total Shots9
4On Target3
14Off Target4
4Blocked2
15Inside Box3
7Outside Box6
Passing
67%Possession33%
656Total Passes320
558Accurate Passes219
85%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

UEFA Nations League: Austria 1–1 Slovenia

Austria and Slovenia drew 1-1 in UEFA Nations League on November 17, 2024.

Goals: R. Schmid (27'), A. Gnezda Čerin (81').

Austria controlled possession (67%) and registered 22 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ernst-Happel-Stadion in Wien.