Austria 3–0 Slovenia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Austria

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Slovenia

M. Arnautović 51', 36'

D. Alaba 15'

3/23/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Worthersee Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Austria52%

×Draw25%

Slovenia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AustriaExpected goals in this matchSlovenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.94

Austria

1.57

Slovenia

0.94

Austria creates 67% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

2.07

creates per match

1.17

0.71

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Austria

2.07

Slovenia

1.17

allows per match

Austria

0.71

Slovenia

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria+0.00on par

Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria ↓

Slovenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Austria or draw

77%

Austria or Slovenia

75%

Draw or Slovenia

48%

Winning margin

Austria wins by 2+

27%

Slovenia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Austria 1+ goals

79%

Austria 2+ goals

46%

Austria 3+ goals

21%

Slovenia 1+ goals

61%

Slovenia 2+ goals

24%

Slovenia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Austria (draw refunded)

70%

Slovenia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Slovenia away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria attack 2.07 + Slovenia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.57

Slovenia attack 1.17 + Austria defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Austria scores more

52%

level

25%

Slovenia scores more

23%

Austria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Austria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

D. Alaba

36'

M. Arnautović↳ S. Lainer

46'

V. Birsa← J. Kurtič

46'

R. Bezjak← R. Berič

51'

M. Arnautović↳ J. Baumgartlinger

62'

66'

66'

67'

69'

M. Gregoritsch← G. Burgstaller

74'

F. Grillitsch← A. Schöpf

76'

R. Rotman← K. Kampl

77'

D. Črnigoj← J. Iličić

86'

L. Schaub← M. Arnautović

86'

A. Šporar← B. Verbič

90'

M. Wöber← D. Alaba

90'

X. Schlager← J. Baumgartlinger

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AustriaSlovenia

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots5

4Corners6

10Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots5

8On Target2

5Off Target3

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1