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Slovenia U19 vs Austria U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Slovenia U19
Slovenia U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Austria U19
Austria U19
10/8/2025UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Slovenia U1926%
×Draw29%
Austria U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovenia U19
0.88
Austria U19
1.27

Austria U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Slovenia U19
0.86
Austria U19
1.40

allows per match

Slovenia U19
1.14
Austria U19
0.90

finishing

Slovenia U19+0.00on par
Austria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovenia U19 ↓

Austria U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Slovenia U19 or draw
55%
Slovenia U19 or Austria U19
71%
Draw or Austria U19
74%

Winning margin

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+
9%
Austria U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Slovenia U19 1+ goals
59%
Slovenia U19 2+ goals
22%
Slovenia U19 3+ goals
6%
Austria U19 1+ goals
72%
Austria U19 2+ goals
36%
Austria U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)
36%
Austria U19 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovenia U19 at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Austria U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovenia U19 attack 0.86 + Austria U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Austria U19 attack 1.40 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Slovenia U19 scores more
26%
level
29%
Austria U19 scores more
45%

Austria U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Slovenia U19 0–1 Austria U19

Austria U19 beat Slovenia U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on October 8, 2025.