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Austria U19 vs Slovenia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Austria U19
Austria U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slovenia U19
Slovenia U19
3/23/2024UEFA U19 Championship - QualificationUEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Športni park Lendava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Austria U1962%
×Draw22%
Slovenia U1916%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria U19
1.84
Slovenia U19
0.81

Austria U19 creates 127% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Austria U19
2.06
Slovenia U19
1.06

allows per match

Austria U19
0.56
Slovenia U19
1.63

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par
Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw
84%
Austria U19 or Slovenia U19
78%
Draw or Slovenia U19
38%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+
36%
Slovenia U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals
84%
Austria U19 2+ goals
55%
Austria U19 3+ goals
28%
Slovenia U19 1+ goals
56%
Slovenia U19 2+ goals
19%
Slovenia U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)
79%
Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 2.06 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.84

Slovenia U19 attack 1.06 + Austria U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Austria U19 scores more
62%
level
22%
Slovenia U19 scores more
16%

Austria U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria U19 vs Slovenia U19

Austria U19 beat Slovenia U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Športni park Lendava in Lendava.