Austria U19 2–2 Slovenia U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Slovenia U19

10/13/2018

UEFA U19 Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Tersztyánszky Ödön Sportközpont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Austria U1957%

×Draw18%

Slovenia U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchSlovenia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.69

1.75

Austria U19

2.69

Slovenia U19

1.75

Austria U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

4.20

creates per match

2.50

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Austria U19

4.20

Slovenia U19

2.50

allows per match

Austria U19

1.00

Slovenia U19

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Slovenia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Slovenia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

75%

Austria U19 or Slovenia U19

82%

Draw or Slovenia U19

43%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

37%

Slovenia U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

93%

Austria U19 2+ goals

74%

Austria U19 3+ goals

49%

Slovenia U19 1+ goals

83%

Slovenia U19 2+ goals

52%

Slovenia U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Slovenia U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 4.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Slovenia U19 away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 4.20 + Slovenia U19 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 2.69

Slovenia U19 attack 2.50 + Austria U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Austria U19 scores more

57%

level

18%

Slovenia U19 scores more

25%

Austria U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff