Slovan Rosice 3–1 Hodonín: Result & Stats

Slovan Rosice

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hodonín

F. Matula 87'

A. Fila 64', 50'

M. Holek 29'

9/23/2023

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 8Hřiště FC Slovan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Slovan Rosice44%

×Draw25%

Hodonín31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slovan RosiceExpected goals in this matchHodonín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.28

Slovan Rosice

1.56

Hodonín

1.28

Slovan Rosice creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

1.54

creates per match

1.75

0.82

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Slovan Rosice

1.54

Hodonín

1.75

allows per match

Slovan Rosice

0.82

Hodonín

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Hodonín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovan Rosice ↓

Hodonín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Slovan Rosice or draw

69%

Slovan Rosice or Hodonín

75%

Draw or Hodonín

56%

Winning margin

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+

22%

Hodonín wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals

79%

Slovan Rosice 2+ goals

46%

Slovan Rosice 3+ goals

21%

Hodonín 1+ goals

72%

Hodonín 2+ goals

37%

Hodonín 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)

58%

Hodonín (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovan Rosice at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.82 · 67 matches

Hodonín away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovan Rosice attack 1.54 + Hodonín defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hodonín attack 1.75 + Slovan Rosice defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slovan Rosice scores more

44%

level

25%

Hodonín scores more

31%

Slovan Rosice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slovan Rosice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

F. Nemecek← F. Nemecek

29'

M. Holek

50'

A. Fila

60'

M. Kadlec← M. Kadlec

64'

A. Fila

64'

R. Roziev← F. Tomovic

65'

P. Goj← P. Goj

65'

F. Matula← F. Matula

72'

T. Jager← T. Jager

80'

T. Dobrovodsky← T. Dobrovodsky

87'

F. Matula

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff