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Hodonín vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hodonín
Hodonín
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
D. Moucka 90+1'
4/27/20243. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 25Stadion u Červených domků

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hodonín44%
×Draw26%
Slovan Rosice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodonín
1.48
Slovan Rosice
1.17

Hodonín creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Hodonín
1.73
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Hodonín
1.06
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Hodonín+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodonín ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hodonín or draw
70%
Hodonín or Slovan Rosice
74%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
56%

Winning margin

Hodonín wins by 2+
22%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hodonín 1+ goals
77%
Hodonín 2+ goals
43%
Hodonín 3+ goals
19%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
69%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
33%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hodonín (draw refunded)
60%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodonín at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodonín attack 1.73 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Hodonín defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hodonín scores more
44%
level
26%
Slovan Rosice scores more
30%

Hodonín at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
A. Fila← A. Fila
46'
T. Langer← T. Langer
46'
T. Jager← T. Jager
62'
M. Veljaca← M. Guzik
69'
E. Sedlacek← E. Sedlacek
72'
P. Dressler
77'
M. Kadlec← V. Raisigl
77'
F. Tomovic← F. Tomovic
83'
T. Zezula
85'
T. Dobrovodsky← T. Dobrovodsky
85'
R. Buchta← R. Buchta
90+1'
D. Moucka
90+2'
M. Krsak← M. Krsak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Hodonín 0–1 Slovan Rosice

Slovan Rosice beat Hodonín 1-0 in 3. liga - MSFL on April 27, 2024.

Goals: D. Moucka (90+1').

The match was played at Stadion u Červených domků in Hodonín.