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Slovácko II vs Hranice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Slovácko II
Slovácko II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hranice
Hranice
P. Juroska 6'
J. Rolinc 86' (pen)
M. Kuchar 70'
3/19/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 20Stadion Na Bělince

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Slovácko II56%
×Draw22%
Hranice22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slovácko II
2.00
Hranice
1.17

Slovácko II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 51 away

creates per match

Slovácko II
1.79
Hranice
1.06

allows per match

Slovácko II
1.28
Hranice
2.22

finishing

Slovácko II+0.00on par
Hranice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slovácko II ↓

Hranice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Slovácko II or draw
78%
Slovácko II or Hranice
78%
Draw or Hranice
44%

Winning margin

Slovácko II wins by 2+
33%
Hranice wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Slovácko II 1+ goals
86%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
59%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
32%
Hranice 1+ goals
69%
Hranice 2+ goals
33%
Hranice 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slovácko II (draw refunded)
72%
Hranice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slovácko II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.28 · 82 matches

Hranice away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slovácko II attack 1.79 + Hranice defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hranice attack 1.06 + Slovácko II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Slovácko II scores more
56%
level
22%
Hranice scores more
22%

Slovácko II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. Juroska
37'
J. Bena
37'
D. Grygar
42'
I. Aldin
45'
R. Kundrat
68'
P. Juroska← T. Korycan
68'
I. Aldin← D. Mitrevski
68'
D. Slechta← D. Slechta
70'
M. Kuchar
73'
M. Guzik← M. Guzik
79'
J. Marek← J. Marek
82'
M. Merdovic
83'
A. Dittmer
86'
J. RolincPenalty
89'
M. Guzik
90'
D. Grygar← L. Hapal
90+3'
D. Slechta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - MSFL: Slovácko II 1–2 Hranice

Hranice beat Slovácko II 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on March 19, 2023.

Goals: P. Juroska (6'), M. Kuchar (70'), J. Rolinc (86' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Na Bělince in Kunovice.