Hranice 1–3 Slovácko II: Result & Stats

Hranice

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Slovácko II

M. Skoda 81'

O. Ceesay 57', 33', 24'

9/19/2025

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 8Stadion SK Hranice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hranice37%

×Draw24%

Slovácko II39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HraniceExpected goals in this matchSlovácko II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.52

Hranice

1.48

Slovácko II

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

1.37

creates per match

1.41

1.63

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Hranice

1.37

Slovácko II

1.41

allows per match

Hranice

1.63

Slovácko II

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hranice+0.00on par

Slovácko II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hranice ↓

Slovácko II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hranice or draw

61%

Hranice or Slovácko II

76%

Draw or Slovácko II

63%

Winning margin

Hranice wins by 2+

18%

Slovácko II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hranice 1+ goals

77%

Hranice 2+ goals

43%

Hranice 3+ goals

19%

Slovácko II 1+ goals

78%

Slovácko II 2+ goals

45%

Slovácko II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hranice (draw refunded)

49%

Slovácko II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hranice at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Slovácko II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hranice attack 1.37 + Slovácko II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slovácko II attack 1.41 + Hranice defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hranice scores more

37%

level

24%

Slovácko II scores more

39%

Slovácko II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

33'

57'

64'

64'

65'

65'

81'

82'

82'

M. Kalabus← D. Okoromi

82'

M. Lasak← Kim Seung-Bin

90'

J. Snopek← S. Olayiwola

Hranice

Slovácko

30

Zlatkovsk

5

Severa

8

Droppa

10

▼

Okoromi

11

▼

Hruska

14

▼

Olayiwola

21

Holasek

22

Novotny

20

▼

Seung-Bin

27

⚽3

▼

99

1

4

6

7

▼

Ciku

9

Prikryl

11

▼

Kiska

15

Cagas

18

Coufal

20

▼

Zdrazil

22

Gabris

12

Olawunmi

64'▲M. Skoda←▼L. Zdrazil

64'▲M. Sidlik←▼J. Kiska

82'▲V. Cverna←▼E. Ciku

Hranice substitutes

5Cverna17Skoda21Sidlik23Vymetalik24Kubica2Kunovsky

65'▲K. Zelina←▼O. Ceesay

65'▲P. Sehnal←▼F. Hruska

82'▲M. Kalabus←▼D. Okoromi

82'▲M. Lasak←▼Kim Seung-Bin

90'▲J. Snopek←▼S. Olayiwola

Slovácko II substitutes

9Zelina13Markov17Kalabus24Sehnal25Lasak31Hlobil35Snopek