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Hranice vs Slovácko II — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Hranice
Hranice
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slovácko II
Slovácko II
A. Jasensky 89', 75'
M. Kohut 59'
11/16/20233. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 16Stadion SK Hranice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hranice37%
×Draw24%
Slovácko II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hranice
1.48
Slovácko II
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

creates per match

Hranice
1.37
Slovácko II
1.41

allows per match

Hranice
1.63
Slovácko II
1.59

finishing

Hranice+0.00on par
Slovácko II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hranice ↓

Slovácko II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Hranice or draw
61%
Hranice or Slovácko II
76%
Draw or Slovácko II
63%

Winning margin

Hranice wins by 2+
18%
Slovácko II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hranice 1+ goals
77%
Hranice 2+ goals
43%
Hranice 3+ goals
19%
Slovácko II 1+ goals
78%
Slovácko II 2+ goals
45%
Slovácko II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hranice (draw refunded)
49%
Slovácko II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hranice at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 51 matches

Slovácko II away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hranice attack 1.37 + Slovácko II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Slovácko II attack 1.41 + Hranice defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hranice scores more
37%
level
24%
Slovácko II scores more
39%

Slovácko II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Slovácko II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
J. Rolinc
52'
D. Kolacek← D. Kolacek
56'
D. Holasek
59'
M. Kohut
67'
M. Kohut
67'
L. Hapal← J. Cagas
75'
A. Jasensky
78'
D. Grygar
81'
M. Stropsa
81'
D. Grygar← M. Vymetalik
81'
D. Opatril← D. Opatril
86'
Kim Seung-Bin← T. Korycan
89'
A. Jasensky
90+1'
P. Vavrik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hranice vs Slovácko II

Hranice beat Slovácko II 2-1 in 3. liga - MSFL on November 16, 2023.

Goals: M. Kohut (59'), A. Jasensky (75', 89').

The match was played at Stadion SK Hranice in Hranice.