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Sloboda Tuzla vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
10/1/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 8Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla68%
×Draw20%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
2.03
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.72

Sloboda Tuzla creates 182% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.86
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.73

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
0.71
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
2.20

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
88%
Sloboda Tuzla or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
80%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
32%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
43%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
87%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
60%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
33%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
51%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
16%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
85%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.03

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
68%
level
20%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
12%

Sloboda Tuzla at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Tuzla vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Sloboda Tuzla beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 6-2 in 1st League - FBiH on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.