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Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Sloboda Tuzla — Premijer Liga 2019

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
11/7/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 14MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj43%
×Draw27%
Sloboda Tuzla29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.33
Sloboda Tuzla
1.05

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 27% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 79 away

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.00
Sloboda Tuzla
0.59

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.52
Sloboda Tuzla
1.67

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par
Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw
71%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Sloboda Tuzla
73%
Draw or Sloboda Tuzla
57%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
20%
Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
74%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
38%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
15%
Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
65%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
28%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
59%
Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.67 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.00 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sloboda Tuzla attack 0.59 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
43%
level
27%
Sloboda Tuzla scores more
29%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2–0 Sloboda Tuzla

Mladost Doboj Kakanj beat Sloboda Tuzla 2-0 in Premijer Liga on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at MGM Farm Arena in Kakanj.