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Sloboda Tuzla vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — Premijer Liga 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
8/12/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 3Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla49%
×Draw26%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
1.47
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.96

Sloboda Tuzla creates 53% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.12
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.71

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.21
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.82

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
75%
Sloboda Tuzla or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
74%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
51%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
24%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
77%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
43%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
18%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
62%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
25%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
66%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.21 · 75 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.12 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
49%
level
26%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
25%

Sloboda Tuzla at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Tuzla vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Sloboda Tuzla beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3-0 in Premijer Liga on August 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.