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Sligo Rovers vs Cork City — Premier Division 2019

Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cork City
Cork City
10/25/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 35Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Sligo Rovers55%
×Draw25%
Cork City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sligo Rovers
1.62
Cork City
0.89

Sligo Rovers creates 82% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 63 away

creates per match

Sligo Rovers
1.19
Cork City
0.73

allows per match

Sligo Rovers
1.04
Cork City
2.05

finishing

Sligo Rovers+0.00on par
Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sligo Rovers ↓

Cork City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sligo Rovers or draw
79%
Sligo Rovers or Cork City
75%
Draw or Cork City
45%

Winning margin

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+
29%
Cork City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals
80%
Sligo Rovers 2+ goals
48%
Sligo Rovers 3+ goals
22%
Cork City 1+ goals
59%
Cork City 2+ goals
22%
Cork City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)
73%
Cork City (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sligo Rovers at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 129 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sligo Rovers attack 1.19 + Cork City defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.62

Cork City attack 0.73 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sligo Rovers scores more
55%
level
25%
Cork City scores more
21%

Sligo Rovers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sligo Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sligo Rovers vs Cork City

Sligo Rovers and Cork City drew 1-1 in Premier Division on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Showgrounds in Sligo.