Cork City 1–1 Sligo Rovers: Result & Stats

Cork City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sligo Rovers

3/7/2025

Premier Division · Round 5Turners Cross

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Cork City40%

×Draw28%

Sligo Rovers32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cork CityExpected goals in this matchSligo Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.11

Cork City

1.28

Sligo Rovers

1.11

Cork City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 129 away

0.97

creates per match

1.04

1.19

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Cork City

0.97

Sligo Rovers

1.04

allows per match

Cork City

1.19

Sligo Rovers

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cork City+0.00on par

Sligo Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cork City ↓

Sligo Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cork City or draw

68%

Cork City or Sligo Rovers

72%

Draw or Sligo Rovers

60%

Winning margin

Cork City wins by 2+

18%

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Cork City 1+ goals

72%

Cork City 2+ goals

37%

Cork City 3+ goals

14%

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals

67%

Sligo Rovers 2+ goals

30%

Sligo Rovers 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cork City (draw refunded)

56%

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cork City at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Sligo Rovers away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.59 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cork City attack 0.97 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.28

Sligo Rovers attack 1.04 + Cork City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cork City scores more

40%

level

28%

Sligo Rovers scores more

32%

Cork City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff