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Slavoj Trebišov vs Liptovský Mikuláš — 2. liga 2019

Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Liptovský Mikuláš
Liptovský Mikuláš
10/7/20232. liga2. liga · Round 11Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov40%
×Draw24%
Liptovský Mikuláš36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Trebišov
1.54
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.45
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.66

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.27
Liptovský Mikuláš
1.64

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par
Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Liptovský Mikuláš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw
64%
Slavoj Trebišov or Liptovský Mikuláš
76%
Draw or Liptovský Mikuláš
60%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
19%
Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
79%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
45%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
20%
Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals
77%
Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals
43%
Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
52%
Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Liptovský Mikuláš away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.64 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.54

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.66 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more
40%
level
24%
Liptovský Mikuláš scores more
36%

Slavoj Trebišov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Trebišov vs Liptovský Mikuláš

Slavoj Trebišov beat Liptovský Mikuláš 2-0 in 2. liga on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión Slavoj Trebišov in Trebišov.