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Liptovský Mikuláš vs Slavoj Trebišov — 2. liga 2019

Liptovský Mikuláš
Liptovský Mikuláš
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
4/24/20242. liga2. liga · Round 26Štadión Pod Dubňom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš58%
×Draw22%
Slavoj Trebišov20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.93
Slavoj Trebišov
1.04

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 86% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.85
Slavoj Trebišov
0.97

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš
1.10
Slavoj Trebišov
2.01

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par
Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw
80%
Liptovský Mikuláš or Slavoj Trebišov
78%
Draw or Slavoj Trebišov
42%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+
34%
Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals
85%
Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals
57%
Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals
30%
Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
65%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
28%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)
74%
Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.10 · 67 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 1.85 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.93

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more
58%
level
22%
Slavoj Trebišov scores more
20%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Liptovský Mikuláš 1–2 Slavoj Trebišov

Slavoj Trebišov beat Liptovský Mikuláš 2-1 in 2. liga on April 24, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión Pod Dubňom in Žilina.