Liptovský Mikuláš 2–2 Slavoj Trebišov

Liptovský Mikuláš

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Slavoj Trebišov

1/20/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Liptovský Mikuláš69%

×Draw16%

Slavoj Trebišov15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liptovský MikulášExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Trebišov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.81

1.27

Liptovský Mikuláš

2.81

Slavoj Trebišov

1.27

Liptovský Mikuláš creates 121% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 4 away

2.13

creates per match

0.75

1.80

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

2.13

Slavoj Trebišov

0.75

allows per match

Liptovský Mikuláš

1.80

Slavoj Trebišov

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liptovský Mikuláš+0.00on par

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liptovský Mikuláš ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Liptovský Mikuláš or draw

85%

Liptovský Mikuláš or Slavoj Trebišov

84%

Draw or Slavoj Trebišov

31%

Winning margin

Liptovský Mikuláš wins by 2+

48%

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Liptovský Mikuláš 1+ goals

94%

Liptovský Mikuláš 2+ goals

76%

Liptovský Mikuláš 3+ goals

52%

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

72%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

36%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Liptovský Mikuláš (draw refunded)

82%

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liptovský Mikuláš at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.75, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liptovský Mikuláš attack 2.13 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.81

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.75 + Liptovský Mikuláš defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Liptovský Mikuláš scores more

69%

level

16%

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

15%

Liptovský Mikuláš at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Liptovský Mikuláš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff