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Slavia Mozyr vs FC Gomel — Coppa 2026

Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyradvanced
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Gomel
FC Gomel
7/27/2025CoppaCoppa · Round of 16Stadion Junost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Slavia Mozyr23%
×Draw24%
FC Gomel54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Mozyr
1.05
FC Gomel
1.75

FC Gomel creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.20
FC Gomel
2.60

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr
0.90
FC Gomel
0.90

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par
FC Gomel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

FC Gomel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw
46%
Slavia Mozyr or FC Gomel
76%
Draw or FC Gomel
77%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
8%
FC Gomel wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
65%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
28%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
9%
FC Gomel 1+ goals
83%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
52%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
30%
FC Gomel (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

FC Gomel away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.20 + FC Gomel defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

FC Gomel attack 2.60 + Slavia Mozyr defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more
23%
level
24%
FC Gomel scores more
54%

FC Gomel at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa: Slavia Mozyr 0–0 FC Gomel

Slavia Mozyr and FC Gomel drew 0-0 in Coppa on July 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Junost in Mozyr.