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FC Gomel vs Slavia Mozyr — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Gomel
FC Gomel
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
D. Kovalevich 89'
D. Silinsky 75'
G. Kukushkin 63'
Unknown 50'
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FC Gomel61%
×Draw26%
Slavia Mozyr13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gomel
1.50
Slavia Mozyr
0.55

FC Gomel creates 173% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

FC Gomel
2.00
Slavia Mozyr
0.67

allows per match

FC Gomel
0.43
Slavia Mozyr
1.00

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par
Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

Slavia Mozyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw
87%
FC Gomel or Slavia Mozyr
74%
Draw or Slavia Mozyr
39%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+
32%
Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals
78%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
44%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
19%
Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
42%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
11%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)
82%
Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 2.00 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Slavia Mozyr attack 0.67 + FC Gomel defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Gomel scores more
61%
level
26%
Slavia Mozyr scores more
13%

FC Gomel at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
63'
G. Kukushkin
75'
D. Silinsky
89'
D. Kovalevich
FC
Slavia
Andrey Gorovtsov
Manager: Andrey Gorovtsov
Ivan Bionchik
Manager: Ivan Bionchik

Friendlies Clubs: FC Gomel 3–1 Slavia Mozyr

FC Gomel beat Slavia Mozyr 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.

Goals: ? (50'), G. Kukushkin (63'), D. Silinsky (75'), D. Kovalevich (89').