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FC Gomel vs Slavia Mozyr — Premier League 2018

FC Gomel
FC Gomel
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
T. Lutsevich 51'
4/6/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Centralnyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

FC Gomel42%
×Draw26%
Slavia Mozyr32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gomel
1.46
Slavia Mozyr
1.24

FC Gomel creates 18% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 103 away

creates per match

FC Gomel
1.41
Slavia Mozyr
1.30

allows per match

FC Gomel
1.18
Slavia Mozyr
1.51

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par
Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

Slavia Mozyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw
68%
FC Gomel or Slavia Mozyr
74%
Draw or Slavia Mozyr
58%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+
20%
Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals
77%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
43%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
18%
Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
71%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
35%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)
57%
Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.18 · 104 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.51 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 1.41 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.30 + FC Gomel defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Gomel scores more
42%
level
26%
Slavia Mozyr scores more
32%

FC Gomel at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
K. Cheburakov← A. Butko
51'
T. Lutsevich↳ N. Ivanov
61'
Fernando Neto← L. Aliu
71'
A. Lukashov← T. Lutsevich
71'
N. Melnikov← A. Dzhigero
71'
Y. Kuznetsov← N. Ivanov
75'
A. Cobet← V. Poloz
81'
A. Potapenko← A. Shemruk
81'
E. Barsukov← V. Martinkevich
86'
V. Likhtin← I. Kukharchik

Statistics

FCSlavia
Discipline
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Premier League: FC Gomel 0–1 Slavia Mozyr

Slavia Mozyr beat FC Gomel 1-0 in Premier League on April 6, 2025.

Goals: T. Lutsevich (51').

The match was played at Centralnyj Stadion in Gomel.