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Slavia Mozyr vs FC Dnepr Mogilev — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Slavia Mozyr50%
×Draw21%
FC Dnepr Mogilev29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Mozyr
2.21
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.67

Slavia Mozyr creates 32% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.75
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.33

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.00
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.67

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par
FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw
71%
Slavia Mozyr or FC Dnepr Mogilev
79%
Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev
50%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
30%
FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
89%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
65%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
38%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals
81%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals
50%
FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
63%
FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.75 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 2.33 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more
50%
level
21%
FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more
29%

Slavia Mozyr at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slavia Mozyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavia Mozyr vs FC Dnepr Mogilev

Slavia Mozyr beat FC Dnepr Mogilev 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.