FC Dnepr Mogilev 0–1 Slavia Mozyr: Result & Stats

FC Dnepr Mogilev

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slavia Mozyr

4/5/2026

Premier League · Round 2Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev31%

×Draw26%

Slavia Mozyr43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Dnepr MogilevExpected goals in this matchSlavia Mozyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.43

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.18

Slavia Mozyr

1.43

Slavia Mozyr creates 21% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 112 away

0.87

creates per match

1.28

1.58

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev

0.87

Slavia Mozyr

1.28

allows per match

FC Dnepr Mogilev

1.58

Slavia Mozyr

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dnepr Mogilev ↓

Slavia Mozyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw

57%

FC Dnepr Mogilev or Slavia Mozyr

74%

Draw or Slavia Mozyr

69%

Winning margin

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+

13%

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals

69%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals

33%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals

12%

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals

76%

Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals

42%

Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)

42%

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.87 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.18

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.28 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more

31%

level

26%

Slavia Mozyr scores more

43%

Slavia Mozyr at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Slavia Mozyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff