Slavia Mozyr 2–0 FC Dnepr Mogilev: Result & Stats

Slavia Mozyr

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Dnepr Mogilev

3/15/2024

Premier League · Round 1Stadyen Junatsva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Slavia Mozyr53%

×Draw24%

FC Dnepr Mogilev22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavia MozyrExpected goals in this matchFC Dnepr Mogilev

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.98

Slavia Mozyr

1.67

FC Dnepr Mogilev

0.98

Slavia Mozyr creates 70% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 69 away

1.27

creates per match

0.75

1.21

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr

1.27

FC Dnepr Mogilev

0.75

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr

1.21

FC Dnepr Mogilev

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

FC Dnepr Mogilev+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

FC Dnepr Mogilev →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw

78%

Slavia Mozyr or FC Dnepr Mogilev

76%

Draw or FC Dnepr Mogilev

47%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+

29%

FC Dnepr Mogilev wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals

81%

Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals

50%

Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals

23%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 1+ goals

62%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 2+ goals

26%

FC Dnepr Mogilev 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)

71%

FC Dnepr Mogilev (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 112 matches

FC Dnepr Mogilev away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.07 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.27 + FC Dnepr Mogilev defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

FC Dnepr Mogilev attack 0.75 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more

53%

level

24%

FC Dnepr Mogilev scores more

22%

Slavia Mozyr at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Slavia Mozyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff