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Slavia Mozyr vs Belshina — Premier League 2018

Slavia Mozyr
Slavia Mozyr
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Belshina
Belshina
K. Sidorenko 78'
A. Cobeţ 58'
A. Antilevskiy 25' (pen)
A. Ivanov 3'
I. Kukharchik 71'
9/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Stadyen Junatsva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Slavia Mozyr51%
×Draw24%
Belshina25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavia Mozyr
1.70
Belshina
1.13

Slavia Mozyr creates 50% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 51 away

creates per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.27
Belshina
1.08

allows per match

Slavia Mozyr
1.18
Belshina
2.12

finishing

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par
Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavia Mozyr ↓

Belshina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavia Mozyr or draw
75%
Slavia Mozyr or Belshina
76%
Draw or Belshina
49%

Winning margin

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+
27%
Belshina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals
82%
Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals
51%
Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals
24%
Belshina 1+ goals
68%
Belshina 2+ goals
31%
Belshina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)
67%
Belshina (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavia Mozyr at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

Belshina away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.12 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.27 + Belshina defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Belshina attack 1.08 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slavia Mozyr scores more
51%
level
24%
Belshina scores more
25%

Slavia Mozyr at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slavia Mozyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Ivanov
25'
A. AntilevskiyPenalty
58'
A. Cobeţ
59'
I. Sen← K. Leonovich
61'
K. Sidorenko← M. Zhumabekov
70'
A. Zaleskiy← A. Dzhigero
71'
I. Kukharchik
74'
N. Sokolovskiy← S. Lomako
78'
K. Sidorenko
80'
I. Costrov← A. Shemruk
85'
E. Barsukov← A. Cobeţ
88'
P. Kotlyarov← S. Sazonchik

Statistics

SlaviaBelshina
Overview
12Corners3
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Slavia Mozyr vs Belshina

Slavia Mozyr beat Belshina 4-1 in Premier League on September 2, 2023.

Goals: A. Ivanov (3'), A. Antilevskiy (25' pen), A. Cobeţ (58'), I. Kukharchik (71'), K. Sidorenko (78').

The match was played at Stadyen Junatsva in Mozyr.