Belshina 1–4 Slavia Mozyr: Result & Stats

Belshina

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Slavia Mozyr

S. Lomako 87'

A. Alshanik 81'

V. Potorocha 65'

I. Chesnokov 8' (OG)

G. Zherdev 7'

11/6/2022

Premier League · Round 29Stadyen Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Belshina29%

×Draw25%

Slavia Mozyr46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BelshinaExpected goals in this matchSlavia Mozyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.62

Belshina

1.23

Slavia Mozyr

1.62

Slavia Mozyr creates 32% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 103 away

0.96

creates per match

1.30

1.94

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Belshina

0.96

Slavia Mozyr

1.30

allows per match

Belshina

1.94

Slavia Mozyr

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belshina+0.00on par

Slavia Mozyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belshina ↓

Slavia Mozyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Belshina or draw

54%

Belshina or Slavia Mozyr

75%

Draw or Slavia Mozyr

71%

Winning margin

Belshina wins by 2+

12%

Slavia Mozyr wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Belshina 1+ goals

71%

Belshina 2+ goals

35%

Belshina 3+ goals

13%

Slavia Mozyr 1+ goals

80%

Slavia Mozyr 2+ goals

48%

Slavia Mozyr 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Belshina (draw refunded)

38%

Slavia Mozyr (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belshina at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.94 · 52 matches

Slavia Mozyr away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.51 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belshina attack 0.96 + Slavia Mozyr defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Slavia Mozyr attack 1.30 + Belshina defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Belshina scores more

29%

level

25%

Slavia Mozyr scores more

46%

Slavia Mozyr at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Slavia Mozyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

G. Zherdev

8'

I. ChesnokovOwn goal

23'

Kirill Rodionov

23'

Cristian Dros

23'

Emmanuel Romess Ovono

39'

Dmitri Denisenko

46'

S. Abdulmajid← D. Denisenko

57'

Yuri Lovets

61'

Alexey Matlakh

62'

E. Barsukov← Y. Lovets

65'

V. Potorocha

68'

M. Lukjanov← I. Guzov

74'

V. Bolotnikov← A. Matlakh

75'

A. Petrenko← E. Ovono

76'

D. Ignatenko← V. Potorocha

81'

A. Alshanik

82'

S. Lomako← S. Abdulmajid

82'

Y. Volovik← A. Aleksandrovich

82'

D. Slesarchuk← A. Cobeţ

84'

V. Poloz← A. Alshanik

87'

S. Lomako

90+2'

Dmitri Ignatenko

Statistics

BelshinaSlavia

Overview

1Corners8

Discipline

3Yellow Cards4