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Slaven Živinice vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
FT
1 – 1
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
10/26/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Slaven Živinice44%
×Draw24%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slaven Živinice
1.60
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
1.33

Slaven Živinice creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 8 away

creates per match

Slaven Živinice
0.83
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.75

allows per match

Slaven Živinice
1.91
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.38

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw
68%
Slaven Živinice or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
76%
Draw or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
56%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
22%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
80%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
47%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
22%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
74%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
38%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
58%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 0.83 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 0.75 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more
44%
level
24%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
32%

Slaven Živinice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Slaven Živinice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slaven Živinice vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

Slaven Živinice and Metalleghe-BSI Jajce drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Živinice.