Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce vs Slaven Živinice — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
FT
2 – 0
Slaven Živinice
Slaven Živinice
11/17/20181st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · Round 15Stadion Mračaj (Jajce)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce79%
×Draw14%
Slaven Živinice7%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.55
Slaven Živinice
0.61

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce creates 318% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

creates per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.30
Slaven Živinice
0.52

allows per match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.70
Slaven Živinice
2.80

finishing

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par
Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce ↓

Slaven Živinice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or draw
93%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce or Slaven Živinice
86%
Draw or Slaven Živinice
21%

Winning margin

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
57%
Slaven Živinice wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
92%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
72%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
46%
Slaven Živinice 1+ goals
46%
Slaven Živinice 2+ goals
13%
Slaven Živinice 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
92%
Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Slaven Živinice away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 2.30 + Slaven Živinice defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.55

Slaven Živinice attack 0.52 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
79%
level
14%
Slaven Živinice scores more
7%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Metalleghe-BSI Jajce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Metalleghe-BSI Jajce vs Slaven Živinice

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce beat Slaven Živinice 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Mračaj (Jajce).