Slaven Živinice 1–1 Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

Slaven Živinice

FT

1 – 1

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

8/12/2017

1st League - FBiH · Round 2Gradski Stadion (Živinice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Slaven Živinice51%

×Draw23%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slaven ŽiviniceExpected goals in this matchMetalleghe-BSI Jajce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.25

Slaven Živinice

1.82

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

1.25

Slaven Živinice creates 46% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 10 away

1.04

creates per match

0.70

1.80

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Slaven Živinice

1.04

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

0.70

allows per match

Slaven Živinice

1.80

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slaven Živinice+0.00on par

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slaven Živinice ↓

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Slaven Živinice or draw

74%

Slaven Živinice or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

77%

Draw or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

49%

Winning margin

Slaven Živinice wins by 2+

28%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Slaven Živinice 1+ goals

84%

Slaven Živinice 2+ goals

54%

Slaven Živinice 3+ goals

27%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals

71%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals

36%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Slaven Živinice (draw refunded)

66%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slaven Živinice at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.80 · 25 matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slaven Živinice attack 1.04 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.82

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 0.70 + Slaven Živinice defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slaven Živinice scores more

51%

level

23%

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more

26%

Slaven Živinice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Slaven Živinice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff