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SKRA Częstochowa vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — II Liga - East 2019

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
7/28/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 2Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa42%
×Draw27%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.38
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.14

SKRA Częstochowa creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 36 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.37
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.33

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.95
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.39

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
69%
SKRA Częstochowa or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
73%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
58%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
20%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
75%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
40%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
16%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
68%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
32%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
58%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.39 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.33 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
42%
level
27%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
31%

SKRA Częstochowa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: SKRA Częstochowa 1–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

SKRA Częstochowa beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1-0 in II Liga - East on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.