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Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs SKRA Częstochowa — I Liga 2018

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
3/31/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 25Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz45%
×Draw28%
SKRA Częstochowa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.29
SKRA Częstochowa
0.91

Sandecja Nowy Sącz creates 42% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.29
SKRA Częstochowa
0.65

allows per match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.16
SKRA Częstochowa
1.29

finishing

Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sandecja Nowy Sącz ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw
74%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz or SKRA Częstochowa
72%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
55%

Winning margin

Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
21%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
72%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
37%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
14%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
60%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
23%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
63%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.16 · 85 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 1.29 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

SKRA Częstochowa attack 0.65 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
45%
level
28%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
26%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1–2 SKRA Częstochowa

SKRA Częstochowa beat Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2-1 in I Liga on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego in Niepołomice.