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SKRA Częstochowa vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — I Liga 2018

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
8/28/2022I LigaI Liga · Round 8Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa33%
×Draw29%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.07
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 85 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.74
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.93

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.38
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.40

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Sandecja Nowy Sącz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Sandecja Nowy Sącz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
62%
SKRA Częstochowa or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
71%
Draw or Sandecja Nowy Sącz
67%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
13%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
66%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
29%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
9%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1+ goals
69%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2+ goals
32%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
47%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Sandecja Nowy Sącz away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.40 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 0.74 + Sandecja Nowy Sącz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sandecja Nowy Sącz attack 0.93 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
33%
level
29%
Sandecja Nowy Sącz scores more
38%

Sandecja Nowy Sącz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sandecja Nowy Sącz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: SKRA Częstochowa 0–0 Sandecja Nowy Sącz

SKRA Częstochowa and Sandecja Nowy Sącz drew 0-0 in I Liga on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.