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SKRA Częstochowa vs Polonia Bytom — II Liga - East 2019

SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
8/4/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 3Stadion ul. Loretańska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa41%
×Draw27%
Polonia Bytom31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SKRA Częstochowa
1.31
Polonia Bytom
1.10

SKRA Częstochowa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 35 away

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa
1.37
Polonia Bytom
1.26

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa
0.95
Polonia Bytom
1.26

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw
69%
SKRA Częstochowa or Polonia Bytom
73%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
59%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
19%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
73%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
38%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
14%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
67%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
30%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
57%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.37 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Polonia Bytom attack 1.26 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more
41%
level
27%
Polonia Bytom scores more
31%

SKRA Częstochowa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: SKRA Częstochowa 1–0 Polonia Bytom

SKRA Częstochowa beat Polonia Bytom 1-0 in II Liga - East on August 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ul. Loretańska in Częstochowa.