SKRA Częstochowa vs Polonia Bytom

SKRA Częstochowa

CANC

10:00

Polonia Bytom

1/24/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa44%

×Draw25%

Polonia Bytom31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKRA CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchPolonia Bytom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.30

SKRA Częstochowa

1.60

Polonia Bytom

1.30

SKRA Częstochowa creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

1.60

1.00

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa

1.60

Polonia Bytom

1.60

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa

1.00

Polonia Bytom

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Polonia Bytom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw

69%

SKRA Częstochowa or Polonia Bytom

75%

Draw or Polonia Bytom

56%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

23%

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

80%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

47%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

22%

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

73%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

37%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

59%

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.60 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Polonia Bytom attack 1.60 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

44%

level

25%

Polonia Bytom scores more

31%

SKRA Częstochowa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff