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Polonia Bytom vs SKRA Częstochowa — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SKRA Częstochowa
SKRA Częstochowa
2/17/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Polonii Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom58%
×Draw21%
SKRA Częstochowa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
2.02
SKRA Częstochowa
1.10

Polonia Bytom creates 84% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.38
SKRA Częstochowa
1.05

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.15
SKRA Częstochowa
1.66

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
80%
Polonia Bytom or SKRA Częstochowa
79%
Draw or SKRA Częstochowa
42%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
35%
SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
87%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
60%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
33%
SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals
67%
SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals
30%
SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
74%
SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.66 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.02

SKRA Częstochowa attack 1.05 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
58%
level
21%
SKRA Częstochowa scores more
20%

Polonia Bytom at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Polonia Bytom 2–2 SKRA Częstochowa

Polonia Bytom and SKRA Częstochowa drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii Bytom in Bytom.