SKRA Częstochowa 2–2 Górnik Polkowice

SKRA Częstochowa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

K. Ropski 76', 27'

M. Bojdys 89'

M. Biernat 62'

4/16/2022

I Liga · Round 28Stadion GKS-u

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SKRA Częstochowa42%

×Draw26%

Górnik Polkowice32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SKRA CzęstochowaExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.19

SKRA Częstochowa

1.40

Górnik Polkowice

1.19

SKRA Częstochowa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

0.74

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

SKRA Częstochowa

0.74

Górnik Polkowice

1.00

allows per match

SKRA Częstochowa

1.38

Górnik Polkowice

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SKRA Częstochowa ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SKRA Częstochowa or draw

68%

SKRA Częstochowa or Górnik Polkowice

74%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

58%

Winning margin

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

20%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

75%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

41%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

17%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

70%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

33%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

57%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SKRA Częstochowa at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SKRA Częstochowa attack 0.74 + Górnik Polkowice defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.40

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.00 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

42%

level

26%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

32%

SKRA Częstochowa at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SKRA Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

5'

27'

47'

56'

A. Kozubal← D. Makuch

57'

E. Sobków← M. Szuszkiewicz

62'

M. Biernat

70'

D. Niedbała← M. Kwietniewski

70'

P. Sajdak← B. Baranowicz

76'

K. Ropski

79'

A. Olejnik

82'

B. Żołądź← A. Purzycki

82'

D. Radziemski← R. Karmelita

82'

R. Gegedosh← A. Hafez

85'

87'

89'

90+4'

90+6'

R. Brusiło← A. Olejnik

SKRA

Górnik

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: K. Gerega

70'▲D. Niedbała←▼M. Kwietniewski

70'▲P. Sajdak←▼B. Baranowicz

85'▲K. Napora←▼B. Burman

90+6'▲R. Brusiło←▼A. Olejnik

SKRA Częstochowa substitutes

NiedbałaSajdakNaporaBrusiłoMalecPosmykSujeckiNocoń

Manager: S. Szydelko

56'▲A. Kozubal←▼D. Makuch

57'▲E. Sobków←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

82'▲B. Żołądź←▼A. Purzycki

82'▲D. Radziemski←▼R. Karmelita

82'▲R. Gegedosh←▼A. Hafez

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

KozubalSobkówŻołądźRadziemskiGegedoshKrakowskiBaranowskiFurtakOpałacz

Match Recap: SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Polkowice

SKRA Częstochowa and Górnik Polkowice drew 2-2 in I Liga on April 16, 2022.

Goals: K. Ropski (27', 76'), M. Biernat (62'), M. Bojdys (89').

The match was played at Stadion GKS-u in Bełchatów.

SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Polkowice — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SKRA Częstochowa vs Górnik Polkowice