Górnik Polkowice 0–0 SKRA Częstochowa

Górnik Polkowice

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SKRA Częstochowa

10/3/2021

I Liga · Round 11Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice40%

×Draw31%

SKRA Częstochowa30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchSKRA Częstochowa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.89

Górnik Polkowice

1.08

SKRA Częstochowa

0.89

Górnik Polkowice creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

0.88

creates per match

0.65

1.12

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

0.88

SKRA Częstochowa

0.65

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.12

SKRA Częstochowa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

SKRA Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

SKRA Częstochowa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

70%

Górnik Polkowice or SKRA Częstochowa

69%

Draw or SKRA Częstochowa

60%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

16%

SKRA Częstochowa wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

66%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

29%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

10%

SKRA Częstochowa 1+ goals

59%

SKRA Częstochowa 2+ goals

22%

SKRA Częstochowa 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

57%

SKRA Częstochowa (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

SKRA Częstochowa away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 0.88 + SKRA Częstochowa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.08

SKRA Częstochowa attack 0.65 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

40%

level

31%

SKRA Częstochowa scores more

30%

Górnik Polkowice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

B. Zoladz

29'

M. Palaszewski

39'

M. Stromecki

50'

M. Opalacz

56'

K. Fryzowicz← M. Opałacz

57'

K. Wacławczyk← M. Pałaszewski

67'

B. Baranowicz← M. Stromecki

70'

A. Purzycki← B. Żołądź

70'

K. Szmyt← J. Sypek

74'

M. Kwietniewski← D. Niedbała

74'

K. Wojtyra← M. Mas

77'

S. Szymanski

84'

E. Sobków← M. Szuszkiewicz

88'

D. Bronisławski← P. Nocoń

Górnik

SKRA

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Barylski

56'▲K. Fryzowicz←▼M. Opałacz

57'▲K. Wacławczyk←▼M. Pałaszewski

70'▲A. Purzycki←▼B. Żołądź

70'▲K. Szmyt←▼J. Sypek

84'▲E. Sobków←▼M. Szuszkiewicz

Górnik Polkowice substitutes

FryzowiczWacławczykPurzyckiSzmytSobków

Manager: K. Gerega

67'▲B. Baranowicz←▼M. Stromecki

74'▲M. Kwietniewski←▼D. Niedbała

74'▲K. Wojtyra←▼M. Mas

88'▲D. Bronisławski←▼P. Nocoń

SKRA Częstochowa substitutes

BaranowiczKwietniewskiWojtyraBronisławski

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs SKRA Częstochowa

Górnik Polkowice and SKRA Częstochowa drew 0-0 in I Liga on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.

Górnik Polkowice vs SKRA Częstochowa — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs SKRA Częstochowa